Issue Brief: Modelling Decarbonisation Pathways for the Indian Economy

For developing countries like India, strong climate action can appear to be a trade-off—one that may come at the expense of robust economic growth. The question that India faces today is this: Will it compromise economic development and job creation if it chooses a low-carbon pathway, or can actions to reduce emissions in different sectors be the foundation of a stronger economy and improved human well-being?

As India explores a net-zero emissions future, this issue brief explores four scenarios of climate action for India using a systems dynamics model called the Energy Policy Simulator for India. It investigates policy trade-offs and co-benefits and estimates the costs of climate action. It finds that deep decarbonisation in the Indian economy is possible while also boosting jobs and GDP and avoiding millions of premature deaths due to harmful air pollution. The low-carbon transition will require massive investments in power, industry, transport, and hydrogen. Early policy signals could accelerate technology adoption by industry, benefiting from decreasing technology costs.